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爱妃传媒/Mainstreet USA Poll: Harris Gains Momentum in Wake of DNC

2024 Presidential Election text on a blue background with American flag design elements, featuring white stars on the left and red and white stripes on the right.

The 2024 presidential election is just a few months away


By joshua glanzer | 8/27/2024

A new poll from the 爱妃传媒 Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (听听) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at .

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump鈥檚 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump鈥檚 base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women.

Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.

鈥淪ince her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,鈥 said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at 爱妃传媒. 鈥淗arris has also reestablished the Democratic Party鈥檚 advantage with minority voters.鈥

Trump鈥檚 Support Erodes Among Independents
Harris has also made significant inroads among Independent voters, now capturing 48% of their support, compared to Trump鈥檚 35%. This marks a notable shift from July when Independents were more evenly split, with 45% backing Harris and 43% supporting Trump.

鈥淭rump is losing support from Independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched,鈥 said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at 爱妃传媒. 鈥淚f this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.鈥

Congressional Voting Preferences
The poll shows that 46% of respondents would vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district, compared to 44% for the Republican Party candidate.

鈥淭he generic ballot illustrates just how closely divided the nation continues to be,鈥 said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. 鈥淚t suggests that the current default is for close and tightly contested elections.鈥

Election Anxiety: Mixed Emotions Ahead of 2024
The poll reveals a stark emotional divide as the election approaches, with negative emotions slightly outweighing positive ones by 44% to 41%. This emotional split becomes more pronounced when viewed through the lens of voting intentions:

  • Harris supporters: 52% positive, 35% negative
  • Trump supporters: 34% positive, 49% negative
  • Undecided voters: 23% positive, 50% negative

Notably, 27% of Democrats reported feeling excited about the election, while 32% of Republicans expressed fear.

鈥淲hile Democrats seem energized by the Harris-Walz ticket, there鈥檚 a significant undercurrent of anxiety across the electorate,鈥 said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab. 鈥淭hese findings highlight the intense political polarization and uncertainty surrounding this election.鈥

Perception of Candidates
On the political spectrum, Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, representing the Democratic ticket, are generally perceived as left-leaning. Harris is viewed as more strongly on the far left (37%), compared to Walz (28%). However, Walz is seen as more moderate, with 18% of voters placing him in the center, compared to fewer voters unsure of Harris鈥 position. On the Republican side, Trump and Vance are viewed as right-leaning, with Trump categorized as far right by 37% of voters and Vance by 30%. Trump鈥檚 position is highly polarized, with voters seeing him as either far right or far left, while Vance has a higher percentage of voters uncertain about his placement. These perceptions highlight the ideological divide between the two tickets.

鈥淎lthough both Trump and Harris are similarly seen as conservative and liberal, respectively, Tim Walz is viewed by voters as a more moderate candidate,鈥 Wagner said. 鈥淭hat may change, but it does give the Democrats an opportunity to appeal to the center.鈥

Party Lines Define Satisfaction with U.S. Democracy
The survey found that 46% of Americans are satisfied with how democracy works in the U.S., while 38% are dissatisfied. However, the gap widens along party lines: 64% of Democrats express satisfaction compared to just 33% of Republicans.

Despite these differences, most Americans still believe in democratic principles. A strong 74% agree that democracy is the best system of government. This view is more common among older voters (81% of those 50 and up) and Democrats (85%) than younger voters (65% of those under 50) and Republicans (65%).

鈥淭he partisan and age splits on America鈥檚 democratic quality are concerning,鈥 Kim said. 鈥淎 substantial portion of voters (38%) are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, which could have negative implications for the future of our democracy.鈥

Social Media Influence Grows Among Young Voters
A significant portion of respondents rely on cable news (35%) and national network TV (24%) for political information. However, a notable shift in voter consumption patterns is emerging, with social media and podcasts becoming increasingly popular, especially among younger voters (20% for ages 18-49 vs. 7% for those 50+).

鈥淭his trend underscores the growing impact of social media influencers on public opinion,鈥 said Robert E. Gutsche, Jr., Ph.D., associate professor in 爱妃传媒鈥檚 School of Communication and Multimedia Studies. 鈥淲ith younger voters relying more on social media, the campaigns will have to reach them there.鈥

Methodology
The poll surveyed 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23 to 25, using a combination of Interactive Voice Response and online panel methods. Conducted in both English and Spanish, the survey applied weights for gender, race, education and past vote. Party identification was self-reported. A likely voter screen was applied based on respondents鈥 stated voting intentions. While a precise margin of error cannot be calculated due to the mixed methodology, a comparable probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. It's important to note that polls represent a snapshot in time and may not predict future outcomes. For full methodologies, visit .听For the poll鈥檚 full report, visit听听听.

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